Silverstone ended with the championship leader fifteenth in a damaged car and his advantage cut almost in half. Two weeks later the season arrives at Spa-Francorchamps, which is the last place a team whose Sundays have started going wrong wants to be. Seven kilometres of Ardennes forest, 44 laps, and a lap so long that a weather front can sit over one end of the circuit while the other stays dry.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli still leads, and by a race win’s worth of points. But the trend has turned: he has been beaten in each of the last two rounds, and for the first time in 2026 the cars behind him arrive with the momentum.
The championship
Twenty-five points is the smallest the lead has been since the start of May. It was 66 after Monaco. Barcelona took 25 off it in an afternoon when Andrea Kimi Antonelli retired, Austria trimmed one more, and Silverstone took another fifteen. George Russell and Lewis Hamilton are now separated by seven points in the fight for second, which is its own race inside the race, and Charles Leclerc has moved clear of the McLarens after winning at Silverstone.
What Spa asks of the cars
Aerodynamic efficiency, not maximum downforce: the run from La Source through Eau Rouge and up the Kemmel straight is nearly two kilometres of full throttle, then the middle sector demands genuine load through Pouhon and the Speaker’s Corner sweeps. Every team runs a wing level they are unhappy with in one sector or the other. Power unit: more of this lap is spent at full throttle than almost anywhere, so the 2026 units - and how well each team manages the electrical deployment across a 7 km lap - matter more here than at any circuit since Monza will. Tyre energy: degradation is high, the corners are long and fast, and a two-stop is normal.
“You come out of Eau Rouge with the car light and the throttle pinned and you have another twenty seconds of straight to think about whether that was wise.”
Then there is the weather, which at Spa is less a variable than a participant. Rain over Malmedy while the pit straight stays dry is a normal Sunday here, and the circuit has produced more strategy-inverting afternoons than anywhere on the calendar. For a championship leader carrying a 25-point cushion, that is a threat. For the two men behind him, it is the best tool they have.
The storylines
Third in Austria, fifteenth at Silverstone, and a lead down from 66 to 25 in three rounds. He has still scored more than anyone this season by a distance - but Spa punishes a team whose execution has begun to wobble, and this is only his second Belgian Grand Prix in a Formula 1 car.
Russell is 25 behind his team-mate and seven ahead of Hamilton. He has won twice this year and been the more reliable of the two silver cars since May. If Mercedes have a genuine internal title fight, Spa is where it stops being theoretical.
Barcelona and Silverstone both went red, and Ferrari have cut the constructors’ gap to Mercedes to 78. Spa suits their aero package, and Leclerc arrives fourth in the championship with a win already banked.